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The debate on vaccination timing is just one among several BMJ discussions regarding the safety and effectiveness of our vaccination programs, They remind me of the words of Aldo Leopold, godfather of of the modern science of ecology: " We all strive for safety, prosperity, comfort, long life...but too much safety seems to yield only danger in the long run." He wrote this after observing how zealous control of predators leads to the destruction of a forest when the deer population explodes. ('Thinking Like a Mountain', April 1944, collected in 'A Sand County Almanac' 1949)....The principle applies to our zealous attempts to control pathogens such as the influenza virus: During the 2014-15 season flu vaccine actually INCREASED the overall risk of getting sick from H3N2 virus by 16% (VE -16%, CI -49% to 9%). For children 1-19 years it INCREASED the risk 64% (VE -64%, CI -179% to 3%). If this was your first flu shot in 3 or 4 years it decreased you r risk 53%; if you also had the 2013-14 flu shot your risk INCREASED 32%; If you had flu shots in 2014-15, 2013-14, and 2012-13 your risk INCREASED 54%!! (Skowronski et al, CID 3/29/16) This bad news sounds hard to believe, but it has plenty of precedent, which is acknowledged by Canadian public health officials but not by the U.S. CDC.
Not long ago in BMJ Margaret McCartney asked, "What use is mass flu vaccination?" There is evidence to suggest that it is not only useless but actually harmful to public health. I am glad that she and Ane Fisker and Tom Jefferson and Peter Doshi and others continue to ask pointed questions about vaccinations in the pages of BMJ. "...TOO MUCH SAFETY SEEMS TO YIELD ONLY DANGER..."
"Too much safety seems to yield only danger in the long run."
The debate on vaccination timing is just one among several BMJ discussions regarding the safety and effectiveness of our vaccination programs, They remind me of the words of Aldo Leopold, godfather of of the modern science of ecology: " We all strive for safety, prosperity, comfort, long life...but too much safety seems to yield only danger in the long run." He wrote this after observing how zealous control of predators leads to the destruction of a forest when the deer population explodes. ('Thinking Like a Mountain', April 1944, collected in 'A Sand County Almanac' 1949)....The principle applies to our zealous attempts to control pathogens such as the influenza virus: During the 2014-15 season flu vaccine actually INCREASED the overall risk of getting sick from H3N2 virus by 16% (VE -16%, CI -49% to 9%). For children 1-19 years it INCREASED the risk 64% (VE -64%, CI -179% to 3%). If this was your first flu shot in 3 or 4 years it decreased you r risk 53%; if you also had the 2013-14 flu shot your risk INCREASED 32%; If you had flu shots in 2014-15, 2013-14, and 2012-13 your risk INCREASED 54%!! (Skowronski et al, CID 3/29/16) This bad news sounds hard to believe, but it has plenty of precedent, which is acknowledged by Canadian public health officials but not by the U.S. CDC.
Not long ago in BMJ Margaret McCartney asked, "What use is mass flu vaccination?" There is evidence to suggest that it is not only useless but actually harmful to public health. I am glad that she and Ane Fisker and Tom Jefferson and Peter Doshi and others continue to ask pointed questions about vaccinations in the pages of BMJ. "...TOO MUCH SAFETY SEEMS TO YIELD ONLY DANGER..."
Competing interests: No competing interests