Yellowhammer outlines how things fall apart in a no deal Brexit

Disproportionate effects

The effects that the Yellowhammer document foresees for the health and care sectors are significant. It states that “seasonal flu could exacerbate a number of impacts and stretch resources of partners and responders.” The 2019 Australian flu season began early,5 and by mid-August the country had seen 430 deaths attributed to this outbreak.

The document predicts major electricity price increases, with evident negative health consequences for people who are poor and elderly or chronically ill as we head through autumn and into winter.

It predicts that, in the absence of mitigation, the transport flow through the Calais-Dover crossing could drop to 40% of the current rate. It notes the effect this would have on medical supplies and drugs, three quarters of which come into the UK by this route. The risks to veterinary medical supplies would also exacerbate the risks of animal disease outbreaks, with evident risks to human health. It also says that certain types of fresh food supply will decrease, with consequent price rises that will disproportionately hit the poorest people.

No agreements are in place with the EU or its member states to continue the present healthcare reciprocal arrangements or the European Health Insurance Card scheme. It states, “Healthcare may require people to demonstrate residency, current or previous employment, enter a social insurance scheme of purchase private insurance. Member states should treat people with urgent needs, but may require them to pay after the fact. There is a risk of disruption to patients, and a minority may pay substantial costs.”

A “social care last” Brexit

As to the UK’s already fragile social care sector, the document predicts that “an increase in inflation following EU exit would significantly impact adult social care providers due to increasing staff and supply costs, and may lead to provider failure, with smaller providers impacted within 2-3 months and larger providers 4-6 months after exit.

“There are also possible concurrent localised risks: transport or staff disruption, severe winter weather or flu that could exacerbate the existing market fragility, and that cumulatively could stretch the resources of providers and LAs [local authorities].”

This document is a scenario mapping exercise of a middle-ground likely outcome if Brexit with no deal Brexit happens on 31 October. Like any policy related strategic mapping exercise, it cannot predict the future: its role is scenario planning to enable preparation and risk mitigation.

Our politics are currently in a state of turbulence that at times borders on anarchy.6 The legality of proroguing parliament in the way Boris Johnson has is being challenged, on the grounds that his real intention was to prevent parliamentary scrutiny of the government’s plans and progress, so as to maximise the chances of a no deal Brexit.7 And Johnson actually abolished his own majority by withdrawing the Conservative whip from 21 MPs who voted against the government to prevent a no deal Brexit: most of these 21 were long serving loyalists, and a few were successful Cabinet ministers.8

The government’s deceitful and evasive approach in altering this document’s purpose and title for its reluctant and enforced publication is depressing, if not surprising. Nobody knows what is going to happen next. But shutting down parliamentary scrutiny is a curious way to take back control and reassert our sovereignty as a representative democracy.

Competing interests: