Scared to death?
BMJ 2002; 325 doi: https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.325.7378.1442 (Published 21 December 2002) Cite this as: BMJ 2002;325:1442
- Gary Smith, Fletcher Jones professor (gsmith@pomona.edu)
- Department of Economics, Pomona College, Claremont, California 91711, USA
Phillips et al report a “Hound of the Baskervilles effect” among Chinese-Americans andJapanese-Americans, who have abnormally high cardiac mortality on the fourth day of each month because they think the number 4 is unlucky.1 Is it plausible that the number 4 is regarded with the same terror that the fictional Charles Baskerville felt as he was pursued in the dark by a huge hound “with its flaming jaws and blazing eyes”? We encounter the number 4 every day. Could one more 4, the fourth day of a month, be fatal?
Methods and results
A natural test is to compare deaths on the third, fourth, and fifth days of each month. A longer horizon is flawed because a systematic cycle that causes deaths to peak near day 4 may show statistical significance that reflects a bulge near …
Log in
Log in using your username and password
Log in through your institution
Subscribe from £173 *
Subscribe and get access to all BMJ articles, and much more.
* For online subscription
Access this article for 1 day for:
£38 / $45 / €42 (excludes VAT)
You can download a PDF version for your personal record.