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  3. A levels and intelligence as predictors of medical careers in UK doctors: 20 year prospective study
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A levels and intelligence as predictors of medical careers in UK doctors: 20 year prospective study

BMJ 2003; 327 doi: https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.327.7407.139 (Published 17 July 2003) Cite this as: BMJ 2003;327:139
  1. I C McManus, professor of psychology and medical education (i.mcmanus{at}ucl.ac.uk)1,
  2. Eleni Smithers, medical student1,
  3. Philippa Partridge, medical student1,
  4. A Keeling, research assistant1,
  5. Peter R Fleming, former assistant dean and senior lecturer in medicine, Westminster Medical School2
  1. 1Department of Psychology, University College London, London WC1E 6BT,
  2. 2London SW20 9DY
  1. Correspondence to: I C McManus
  • Accepted 6 May 2003

Abstract

Objective To assess whether A level grades (achievement) and intelligence (ability) predict doctors' careers.

Design Prospective cohort study with follow up after 20 years by postal questionnaire.

Setting A UK medical school in London.

Participants 511 doctors who had entered Westminster Medical School as clinical students between 1975 and 1982 were followed up in January 2002.

Main outcome measures Time taken to reach different career grades in hospital or general practice, postgraduate qualifications obtained (membership/fellowships, diplomas, higher academic degrees), number of research publications, and measures of stress and burnout related to A level grades and intelligence (result of AH5 intelligence test) at entry to clinical school. General health questionnaire, Maslach burnout inventory, and questionnaire on satisfaction with career at follow up.

Results 47 (9%) doctors were no longer on the Medical Register. They had lower A level grades than those who were still on the register (P < 0.001). A levels also predicted performance in undergraduate training, performance in postregistration house officer posts, and time to achieve membership qualifications (Cox regression, P < 0.001; b=0.376, SE=0.098, exp(b)=1.457). Intelligence did not independently predict dropping off the register, career outcome, or other measures. A levels did not predict diploma or higher academic qualifications, research publications, or stress or burnout. Diplomas, higher academic degrees, and research publications did, however, significantly correlate with personality measures.

Conclusions Results of achievement tests, in this case A level grades, which are particularly used for selection of students in the United Kingdom, have long term predictive validity for undergraduate and postgraduate careers. In contrast, a test of ability or aptitude (AH5) was of little predictive validity for subsequent medical careers.

Footnotes

  • Contributors PRF initiated the study, and was responsible for collecting the original data from 1975 to 1982, and ICMcM and PRF collated those data in 1989. ICMcM, ES, and PP designed the present follow up, and ES and PP traced and contacted the doctors. AK was responsible for data coding and entry. ICMcM, ES, PP, and AK jointly carried out data analysis. The first draft of the paper was written by ICMcM, and ES, PP, AK, and PRF contributed to its revision. ICMcM is guarantor.

  • Funding AK was supported by funding from North Thames Postgraduate Medical and Dental Education.

  • Competing interests None declared.

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