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Diana Wellesley a Wessex Clinical Genetics Service, Princess Anne
Hospital, Southampton SO16 5YA, b Wessex Regional Genetics Laboratory, Salisbury District
Hospital, Salisbury SP2 8BJ, c Human Genetics Research Division,
Duthie Building, Southampton General Hospital, Southampton SO16
6YD, d Wessex Fetal Medicine Unit, Princess Anne Hospital,
Southampton SO16 5YA
Correspondence
to: D Wellesley dgw{at}soton.ac.uk
Objective:
To compare the effectiveness of different screening policies for the antenatal detection of Down's syndrome.
What is already known on this topic
There have been no controlled studies comparing serum screening with
screening by maternal age, and its greater efficacy has been presumed
from mathematical modelling, which assumed that only 5% of pregnant
women were aged over 35 years The modelling predicted that only 20-30% of cases of Down's syndrome
would arise in women aged over 35 and made no allowance for the effects
of routine anomaly scanning What this study adds
58% of babies with Down's syndrome were born to women aged 35 years
or more Serum screening and nuchal scanning did not achieve significantly
higher antenatal detection rates of Down's syndrome than the use of
maternal age and routine anomaly scanning
Design:
Retrospective six year survey.
Setting:
Maternity units of eight districts.
Participants:
Women who completed their pregnancies
between 1 January 1994 and 31 December 1999 (155 501 deliveries).
Main outcome measures:
Cases of Down's syndrome
identified before 24 weeks' gestation.
Results:
335 cases of Down's syndrome were
identified, 323 in continuing pregnancies or liveborn children. Of
these, 171 were identified antenatally. Seven different screening
policies were used, in three principal groups: serum screening offered to all mothers, maternal age with serum screening or nuchal
translucency available to limited groups, and maternal age combined
with anomaly scans. The districts that used serum screening detected
57%, those using maternal age plus serum or nuchal translucency
screening 52%, and those using a maternal age of
35 and anomaly
scans detected 54%. The least successful district, which offered
amniocentesis only to women aged over 37 years, detected only 31%. If
amniocentesis had been offered from 35 years, as in all other
districts, the detection rate would have risen to 54%. Across the
region 15% (range 12-20%) of pregnant women were 35 years or more at
delivery, and 58% (33-69%) of infants with Down's syndrome were born
to women in this age range.
Conclusions:
Current additional serum or nuchal
translucency screening techniques for antenatal detection of Down's
syndrome are less advantageous than previously supposed. More pregnant women were aged over 35 than has been presumed in statistical models
used in demonstration projects of serum screening and, as a result, the
proportion of affected fetuses in this age group is much greater than predicted.
Serum screening for Down's syndrome has been presumed to be more
effective than screening by maternal age
15% of pregnant women were aged over 35 years, more than double the
5-7% presumed in statistical models of screening
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