Number needed to screen: development of a statistic for disease screening

Abstract

Objectives: To develop the number needed to screen, a new statistic to overcome inappropriate national strategies for disease screening.Number needed to screen is defined as the number of people that need to be screened for a given duration to prevent one death or adverse event.

Design: Number needed to screen was calculated from clinical trials that directly measured the effect of a screening strategy. From clinical trials that measured treatment benefit, the number needed to screen was estimated as the number needed to treat from the trial divided by the prevalence of heretofore unrecognised or untreated disease. Directly calculated values were then compared with estimate number needed to screen values.

Subjects: Standard literature review.

Results: For prevention of total mortality the most effective screening test was a lipid profile. The estimated number needed to screen for dyslipidaemia (low density lipoprotein cholesterol concentration >4.14 mmol/1) was 418 if detection was followed by pravastatin treatment for 5 years. This indicates that one death in 5 years could be prevented by screening 418 people. The estimated number needed to screen for hypertension was between 274 and 1307 for 5 years (for 10 mm Hg and 6 mm Hg diastolic blood pressure reduction respectively) if detection was followed by treatment based on a diuretic. Screening with haemoccult testing and mammography significantly decreased cancer specific, but not total, mortality. The number needed to screen for haemoccult screening to prevent a death from colon cancer was 1374 for 5 years, and the number needed to screen for mammography to prevent a death from breast cancer was 2451 for 5 years for women aged 50-59.

Conclusion: These data allow the clinician to prioritise screening strategies. Of the screening strategies evaluated, screening for, and treatment of, dyslipidaemia and hypertension seem to produce the largest clinical benefit.